Will new rules delay home loan closings?
30 Year Mortgage Interest Rate Forecast
30 Yr Conventional Mortgage FHLMC Contract Rate. Percent Average of Month.
| Month | Date | Forecast Value | 50% Correct +/- | 80% Correct +/- |
| 0 | Aug 2011 | 4.270 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 1 | Sep 2011 | 4.12 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| 2 | Oct 2011 | 4.05 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| 3 | Nov 2011 | 4.09 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| 4 | Dec 2011 | 4.15 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| 5 | Jan 2012 | 4.18 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| 6 | Feb 2012 | 4.23 | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| 7 | Mar 2012 | 4.31 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| 8 | Apr 2012 | 4.42 | 0.11 | 0.24 |
All forecasts are provided AS IS, and FFC disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.
Click Here to get the rest of the story with the Long Range forecasts
30 Year Conventional Mortgage Interest Rate
Past Trend Present Value & Future Projection

Simply Money: Home equity loan issues
Answer: You may be able to lock in a reasonable rate on your existing balance with the lender currently servicing your home equity line of credit (HELOC). This would protect you from potentially higher rates in the future and you'd still have access to the rest of the line of credit if you need it in the future.
Not all HELOCs have this feature, but it is worth checking to see if your loan does include it.
You also may check into the potential benefits of a reverse mortgage once you turn 62, as it could eliminate the mortgage payment and provide you with monthly cash flow.
Refinancing a HELOC
Q: I got a home equity loan four years ago at 11.5 percent for 125 percent of the home value. I desperately want to re-finance. Should I?
A: If you have a first and a second mortgage the second may agree to subordinate (stay in second lien position) and let you refinance your first mortgage to a better rate.
If refinancing the first would save you a substantial amount of money, the second mortgage company would be motivated to allow this because it would improve your ability to pay them back.
If you are able to do this, consider using the extra money you save every month to pay off all consumer debt first and then start paying extra on that second to get "right side up" on the house.
VA HOME LOAN MORTGAGE RATES OCTOBER 8 – RATES DROP
VA home loan mortgage rates for October 8th have been quite volatile but are now seeing a drop. This morning the conventional mortgage rates were up but now we are seeing the 30 year fixed mortgage rate at 4.82% while the 15 year fixed mortgage rate is at 4.26%. It was expected that we were going to see volatility as the month of October is going to get quite interesting for mortgage rates as a whole. VA home loan rates are generally .5% to 1% lower than conventional mortgage rates so you can do the math and see that the 30 year fixed VA home loan could be well below 4%.
Please vote on the First Time Home Buyers Tax Credit Extension here at Subprime Blogger. First Time Home Buyers Tax Credit Extension Poll.
The 10 year treasury rate yield is getting awfully close to the support level of the 200 day moving average and we have predicted that this would hold and keep mortgage interest rates just slightly above their all time lows. If the 200 dma does hold as support we are likely to see a short term rally which could push mortgage rates back above the 5% level which is still very low when looking at mortgage rates historically.
If you have been thinking about refinancing or buying your first home now is as good of a time as ever. With mortgage rates near all time lows and mortgage lenders willing to help you lock in at low rates there is no reason to miss out on this opportunity. If you wait a few weeks there is a good chance that you could see mortgage rates heading higher so don’t pass up your chance to get a low rate.
Make sure to check out Subprime Blogger on a daily basis for your VA home loan rates. We will display the current VA home loan rates as well as a short commentary similar to the above column. Bookmark the following VA Loan category to gain easier access to our daily VA loan rates column.
Mortgage Rates in U.S. Fall to 4.87%
Mortgage rates for 30-year fixed U.S. home loans fell for the second consecutive week, pushing borrowing costs to near record lows.
The average U.S. 30-year rate dropped to 4.87 percent from 4.94 percent last week. The 15-year rate was 4.33 percent, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac of McLean, Virginia, said today in a statement.
Falling rates helped boost home-loan applications last week to the highest level since May. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications to purchase a home or refinance rose 16 percent. Rates around 5 percent, slumping home prices and a government tax credit for first-time homebuyers are bolstering demand for housing.
“We’re not expecting the housing market to come roaring back to anything close to what it was during the boom,” said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida. “It’s going to be a long, gradual recovery.”
The Federal Reserve set out last year to encourage lower mortgage rates by pledging to buy bonds backed by home loans. It increased the size of the program to $1.25 trillion in March.
The purchases from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae brought down yields on mortgage-backed securities and allowed lenders to reduce rates on new loans while still selling the securities backed by them at a profit. The plan helped drive home loan rates to a record low of 4.78 percent twice in April.
Applications Rise
Mortgage applications to buy a home climbed 13 percent in the week ended Oct. 2 and the refinancing gauge surged 18 percent.
Recent data indicate the housing industry is emerging from its worst recession since the 1930s. The index of signed purchase agreements, or pending homesales, jumped 6.4 percent in August, a seventh consecutive gain, the National Association of Realtors said on Oct. 1.
'Magic number': Loans below 5% drive home sales, refinancing
Home loan rates below 5 percent have sent first-time buyers and would-be refinancers flowing into local lending offices to take advantage of the best deals in five months.
"That magic number does seem to be 5 percent," said Brad Blackwell, national sales manager for Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, who said his company has seen applications jump in the past few weeks. "It's a psychological barrier that, once crossed, people jump in."
The national average rate for 30-year, fixed-rate loans fell to 4.87 percent this week, down from 4.94 percent last week, according to a report Thursday from Freddie Mac, a government-run source of mortgage financing. The last time the average rate was lower was in May, at 4.82 percent.
Average interest rates for 30-year "jumbo" loans, those of more than $729,750, were 6.51 percent this week, up from 6.46 percent last week, according to Bankrate.com.
Cathy Warshawsky of Bay Area Loan said fence-sitting customers began calling about two weeks ago as interest rates skirted 5 percent. Most of her customers are refinancing to lower their payments, she said.
But other local brokers said there are plenty of customers hoping to buy homes soon, including some trying to close deals before Nov. 30, when the federal tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers is set to expire.
Though 45- to 60-day escrows are common lately — with banks requiring much documentation and new appraisal rules often resulting in delays — Warshawsky said it's conceivable that buyers jumping in now could close loans by the tax-credit deadline. But that's only if the transaction is for a "regular," non-bank-owned property.
"If you're not dealing with a foreclosure property, you can get it done in 30 days," she said.
In Washington, D.C., House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Thursday that lawmakers might extend the credit, Bloomberg News reported.
"The question is, would that be just first-time homeowners or would you open it up to other purchasers of homes?" Pelosi asked.
Sandie Day, who works in human resources for Santa Clara County, said low rates prompted her to refinance her longtime West San Jose home. Using a new loan of about $340,000, she's consolidating her first and second mortgages, plus taking some cash out of her equity to pay off debt and do energy-efficiency home improvements.
When her loan closes in a couple of weeks, the rate will actually be slightly higher than what she had on her first mortgage, "but in the long term, it's going to be better for me," she said. "I just really want to consolidate everything I have and make a strong financial plan."
San Jose mortgage broker Rob McCarthy of The Honte Group said that for customers with stellar credit scores and 40 percent equity in their properties, refinancing loans could be had for as little as 4.75 percent this week, with no points paid upfront. A point is equal to 1 percent of the loan amount; some borrowers opt to pay points in exchange for lower interest rates.
Nationwide, homeowners and buyers appear to be responding to the lure of cheap financing. A report this week from the Mortgage Brokers Association said that two-thirds of loan applications filed in the week ending Oct. 2 were for refinances. Applications for refi's shot up 18 percent compared with the week before, and applications for home purchase loans rose 13 percent.
Tracie Southerland of Opes Advisors, a lender in Palo Alto, said the era of super-low mortgage rates will come to an end in the months to come, as the Federal Reserve gradually stops buying the mortgage-backed securities that provide financing for the vast majority of mortgages nationwide. The Fed announced that plan last month, without specifying when the pullback will begin.
"There is concern that interest rates will go up as that purchasing slows down," she said. "That is triggering people to think, 'If I'm going to take some action, I should probably take it now' "
PhillyDeals: What to do about home loans and government involvement
His questions boiled down to: What, if anything, should the government do to lower the price of home loans?
There'd be fewer home loans, at higher prices, especially to young people and first-time buyers, without some government-backed agency promising to buy the loans. Investors in recent decades have "relied upon an implicit government guarantee" by Fannie and Freddie to protect their investments against the risk of loss, DeMarco said.
The guarantee was made on riskier and riskier loans, until losses soared, banks stopped lending, and home prices collapsed, forcing a government takeover of Fannie and Freddie to keep them from failing.
We don't want to do that again. Yet if the government goes to the other extreme, pulls out of the home-loan market, and leaves the private sector in charge, there would be times when markets dove and investors and banks stopped lending all together, DeMarco warned.
So, do we need a government-backed "balance sheet of last resort?" he asked. "What level of government credit support is needed to have a mortgage market that operates efficiently?"
Maybe the government should mandate "limited catastrophic credit insurance" that would cover loan losses when the economy stalled.
Or maybe it should leave risk estimates to the private sector - while imposing strict "regulatory oversight" and more "transparency" so investors don't end up funding reckless loans.
DeMarco suggested that, if the government really wants to help first-time home buyers, it may prove more "efficient" to give them cash for "down payment assistance," instead of offering the "general subsidy" of loan guarantees for "all types of mortgage credit" that led to this crisis.
And it's still a crisis. Fannie and Freddie have burned up all their capital, plus $96 billion inTreasury stock investments; they "remain troubled and likely will require" more taxpayer money, even with the Federal Reserve's buying both companies' troubled assets.
Meanwhile, the $1-trillion-asset Federal Home Loan Banks finance system faces big losses, too, which have been masked by changes in their accounting rules, DeMarco noted.
Delinquencies are still rising at all these government-backed lenders.
And we're only in what DeMarco calls "the early stages of an important national discussion" on what to do.
Good for whom?
"This is a great transaction for a great local company, by reference to where the stock had been,"Richard Aldridge, leader of a team of 13 Morgan, Lewis & Bockius L.L.P. lawyers who advised ICT, told me.
It's clearly a better deal for the shareholders, led by ICT chief executive officer John J. Brennan, compared with prices over the last year. The sale price is almost double the $8 a share ICT turned down from a would-be buyer in March, and five times what the stock was worth last fall.
It's not so clear what this means for ICT's 18,000 workers. Sykes plans to shave $20 million off ICT's yearly expenses and to boost its profitability.
Questioned by analysts and investors in a conference call, Brennan and Sykes' chief executive,Charles Sykes Jr., declined to say whom they plan to cut.
Sykes did say he's looking forward to adding ICT's centers in Mexico, India, and Australia, three markets he covets.
He had less to say about ICT facilities spread across other countries, including Pennsylvania sites in Allentown, Bloomsburg, Horsham, Lancaster, and Lock Haven, and the headquarters in Newtown.

